Knowing whether a deal will close

The short answerRep confidence correlates weakly with outcome. What correlates strongly is evidence: how many people at the account are engaged, whether anyone with budget authority has appeared, whether there is a written next step with a date, and whether procurement or legal has been involved. A deal with one contact and no dated next step is not a forecast, it is a hope.

Evidence that actually predicts the close

Stakeholders engagedHow many people, from how many departments. Single threaded is the clearest risk.Strongest predictor

A dated next stepWritten down, agreed by both sides, with a date. Absence is a red flag.Easy to check

Budget authority presentHas anyone who can sign actually been in a conversation.Often assumed

Procurement or legalLate stage, rarely a false positive, usually visible in email.Near certainty

Days since last replyInbound only. Your own follow ups are not engagement.Flag at fourteen

Stage ageHow long it has sat where it is, against your own average.Compare to history

Where this ends up

This is the whole premise.

Kaypo scores open deals on exactly these signals, weighted from deals you already closed, and shows which ones moved the number on each record.

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# revenue, 7:00am

Northwind Health84 ▲

Cascadia Systems71 ▲

Meridian Labs38 ▼

Procurement joined the Northwind thread Tuesday

What this looked like in practice

2% to 14% lead to qualified

When the signals that preceded closed deals were weighted properly, lead to qualified conversion moved from 2 to 14 percent. Two or three criteria the team treated as qualification turned out to predict nothing.

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Questions

How do we know if a deal will close?

Check evidence rather than confidence: how many stakeholders are engaged, whether a dated next step exists, whether budget authority has appeared, and days since the last inbound reply.

What is the biggest risk sign on an open deal?

Single threading. A deal with one engaged contact is one job change from dead, and it is the most reliable predictor of a deal that does not close.

Should we override rep confidence with a model?

No. Put them side by side. The gap between the two is the most useful coaching signal available.

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How do we know if a deal is actually going to close?