Forecasting with no historical data

The short answerStart with the deals you have rather than the history you lack. Write exit criteria so every open deal is staged consistently, apply deliberately crude conversion assumptions, and publish the assumptions alongside the number so everyone knows what is estimated. Then replace each assumption with your own data as it arrives. Within two quarters the borrowed numbers are gone.

What to use before you have your own numbers

Exit criteriaCosts nothing, needs no history, and makes everything later possible.Do this first

Activity leading indicatorsMeetings, proposals, stakeholders. You control them and can count them now.Forecast these

Deliberately crude ratesRound numbers, stated as assumptions, revisited monthly.Honest beats precise

Published assumptionsEvery estimate labelled, so nobody treats it as measurement.Protects credibility

Deal level evidenceWho is engaged, what was committed, what is outstanding. Qualitative but real.Better than a rate

A replacement scheduleWhich assumption gets replaced by real data, and when.Makes it temporary

Where this ends up

Deal level evidence, when you have no rates.

With too little history for a model, what the buyer is doing is the best signal available. Kaypo reads it per deal rather than relying on an average you do not have.

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# revenue, 7:00am

Northwind Health84 ▲

Cascadia Systems71 ▲

Meridian Labs38 ▼

Procurement joined the Northwind thread Tuesday

What this looked like in practice

built from nothing

That company had no revenue operations function and no conversion history at all. The first forecast ran on deliberately crude assumptions, published as assumptions, and each one was replaced with real data as it arrived.

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Questions

How do we forecast with no historical data?

Write exit criteria so staging is consistent, forecast activity you can count, apply crude conversion assumptions, and publish the assumptions alongside the number.

How many closed deals do we need for a real forecast?

Around four quarters of closed opportunities with stage history. Below that, state the sample size beside the rate rather than implying precision you do not have.

Should we use industry benchmarks?

As a placeholder, labelled as such, with a date for replacing them. Benchmarks describe other companies, not your motion.

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How do we build a forecast when we have no historical data?